Sarasota Speaks

The announcement today by Interpol certifying that the documents in the computers, hard disks, and pen drives belonging to FARC narco-guerrillas Raúl Reyes and Iván Ríos have not been changed or manipulated by the Colombian Government or by any other hidden hand marks the beginning of extremely difficult times for Venezuela, Ecuador, and relations in the hemisphere.Analysis and evaluation of the implications of the information found by the judicial agencies of Colombia, the United States and other countries will come later, but what should be determined is whether that information constitutes irrefutable proof that Venezuela and Ecuador took part, not only in Colombia’s internal affairs, but also in the sponsorship and alliance with the FARC.It should be remembered that the victims of the FARC’s crimes include dozens of citizens from different parts of the world.It remains to be seen how countries in the region and multilateral agencies such as the Organization of American States, the Andean Community of Nations, and MERCOSUR will react to these documents. It also remains to be seen what attitude Colombia and the United States will take if the countries of the region dither over their response or do not react at all.It is to be expected, for example, that the Uribe administration will file an action against the governments of Venezuela and/or Ecuador before the International Criminal Court in The Hague and before other international authorities. And it is also to be expected that political, diplomatic and even commercial relations among the three neighbors will become even tenser.As for the United States, if the region takes no action, George W. Bush will be left with no alternative but to apply sanctions on the two countries that have infringed the anti-terrorism treaties. In that case, President Bush has an extensive menu of options available to him.He could, among other things, 1) forbid US financial entities to conduct transactions with the governments of Venezuela and/or Ecuador, including the purchase of bonds of these republics; 2) forbid the exporting of weapon-related products, including dual-use articles such as computers; 3) order the closing of the majority of investment accounts in Venezuelan and/or Ecuadorian banks; 4) impose greater restrictions on granting visas to nationals of these countries: and 5) refrain from applying “sovereign immunity,” which would mean that the families of the victims of terrorism could file civil suits for damages against Venezuela and/or Ecuador before US courts.Not only that, some analysts are speculating that the United Status could suspend the purchase of oil from Venezuela. Regardless of the scope of the measures that the countries of the region and the United Status take against Venezuela, Chávez would do well to break out his sou’wester to brave the stormy seas ahead.